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Carmack thinks Sony might release PS4 before new Xbox

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Dela @ Aug 11, 2009 23:29 | 33 comments

In a recent interview, John Carmack of id Software, touched briefly on the next generation of gaming systems that will replace the Xbox 360 and PlayStation 3 (PS3) consoles. The interview, with Polish site CD-Action, is primarily about id Software's upcoming shooter Rage, but it is the few words he dedicated to the next-generation of gaming that had caught the interview in tech site's radar.

"The whole jockeying for who's gonna release next gen console first is very interesting and really divorced from the technical side of things. Whether Sony wants to try and jump the gun to, you know, to prevent the same kind of 360 lag from happening to them again seems likely. As developers, we would really like to see this generation stretch as long as possible, you know, we'd like to see it be quite a few more years before a next-gen console comes out, but I suspect someone will wind up shipping something earlier rather than later," Carmack says.

So from his own observation, it's clear that it is only based on what he thinks might happen and that there is nothing to suggest that PS4 is in-bound in the near-future (relative to console's life-time), but it does hit on something. The Xbox 360 had a year on the market over the PS3, and its not hard to see that this extra time came as something of an advantage in terms of unit sales - arguably not in terms of hardware failures.

In the previous generation, Microsoft was late to the game with the original Xbox console too, but there were many other reasons why it didn't gain more ground on the PS2 than it did to take additionally into account. The question remains however just how much each company's intention to beat the other to the market next time will affect the duration of the current generation.

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Comment by: SDF_GR (Aug 12, 2009 10:44)

Sony cant afford even a rumour about an upcoming PS4 sooner than 2012-13, that will totally kill PS3.

360 i believe will be enhanced but i dont see a new one coming before 2013.
i dont know the specs of the slim PS3 but i believe that sony in time will make some changes too.
Wii is dead but they dont know it yet, especially after summer that both MS and Sony will release major titles, 2010 is the end of it.

Quote:
The Xbox 360 had a year on the market over the PS3, and its not hard to see that this extra time came as something of an advantage in terms of unit sales

I am a PS3 fun but IMO that PS3 is in 3rd place has nothing to do with the 1 year lead of the 360.
Main reasons IMO.
-Too many exclusive games have been lost or gone multi.
-The only exclusive that PS3 have that is actually one hell of a game is metal gear solid, correct me if i am wrong.
-1st class Exclusives like God of war III, Heavy rain, Gran Turismo etc will be released almost 4years!! after PS3 release.
-1080p games are much less than we expected to be.
-That is uncrackable. IMO thats a 1mill consoles less at least per year.
-backwards compatibility that has been removed instead of killing PS2 and have PS2 content available at PSStore.
-Last but not less the price, that even tho for the specs may be right
they could easily have 2 versions.

edited by creaky to change 'code' quotes to 'quote' quotes

Comment by: st1kyH4nD (Aug 12, 2009 11:57)

this is gonna be very intresting to watch, its just gonna take a small spark to start some new or intresting things from sony or microsoft, or even nintendo

Comment by: emugamer (Aug 12, 2009 12:18)

Originally posted by SDF_GR:
Sony cant afford even a rumour about an upcoming PS4 sooner than 2012-13, that will totally kill PS3.

360 i believe will be enhanced but i dont see a new one coming before 2013.
i dont know the specs of the slim PS3 but i believe that sony in time will make some changes too.
Wii is dead but they dont know it yet, especially after summer that both MS and Sony will release major titles, 2010 is the end of it.

Quote:
The Xbox 360 had a year on the market over the PS3, and its not hard to see that this extra time came as something of an advantage in terms of unit sales
I am a PS3 fun but IMO that PS3 is in 3rd place has nothing to do with the 1 year lead of the 360.
Main reasons IMO.
-Too many exclusive games have been lost or gone multi.
-The only exclusive that PS3 have that is actually one hell of a game is metal gear solid, correct me if i am wrong.
-1st class Exclusives like God of war III, Heavy rain, Gran Turismo etc will be released almost 4years!! after PS3 release.
-1080p games are much less than we expected to be.
-That is uncrackable. IMO thats a 1mill consoles less at least per year.
-backwards compatibility that has been removed instead of killing PS2 and have PS2 content available at PSStore.
-Last but not less the price, that even tho for the specs may be right
they could easily have 2 versions.

Uncharted, infamous, LBP are some incredible hell-of-a-game exclusives. Uncharted 2 will be right up there with MGS, as the devs have had a couple of years to make major improvements. 720p games look incredible and there is really no need for 1080p versions in the majority of cases. What is needed is more substance. I think the PS3 will be around for a while longer. But they need to keep the exclusives they have. Give me a few great exclusives a year alongside some solid multi-platforms and I'll be happy. The graphics in most of this gen of gaming are sufficient for me at least. I can wait a few more years for more realism. Sony is definitely gaining momentum, and a few more years of polishing the services and bugs would do it good. It would give them a chance to really start seeing a profit. I agree that a PS4 any time soon would defy logic.

The PS3 lagging the 360 has a lot to do with the 1-year lead. There are numerous threads where this has been vigorously hashed out by people more knowledgeable on the subject than I ever care to be.

Nintendo lost me. But obviously there is a console for everyone. They might show up on my radar if they reinvent themselves and develop a console more in line with Sony and MS, but in the direction they are going now, you couldn't give me a chipped Wii.

edited by creaky to change 'code' quotes to 'quote' quotes

Comment by: kikzm33z (Aug 12, 2009 13:17)

If Carmack thinks that the PS4 will be released before the new Xbox then Carmack is a retard.

EDIT: What's up with the stretch?

Comment by: MReprogle (Aug 12, 2009 14:03)

Originally posted by bam431:
I think Apple will be next (not really but i would like to see that)

Since Apple is so good at games on the mac....

Besides, I don't have the minimum of $1000 that Apple would want for a product.

Comment by: MReprogle (Aug 12, 2009 14:18)

Originally posted by emugamer:

Originally posted by SDF_GR:
Sony cant afford even a rumour about an upcoming PS4 sooner than 2012-13, that will totally kill PS3.

360 i believe will be enhanced but i dont see a new one coming before 2013.
i dont know the specs of the slim PS3 but i believe that sony in time will make some changes too.
Wii is dead but they dont know it yet, especially after summer that both MS and Sony will release major titles, 2010 is the end of it.

Quote:
The Xbox 360 had a year on the market over the PS3, and its not hard to see that this extra time came as something of an advantage in terms of unit sales
I am a PS3 fun but IMO that PS3 is in 3rd place has nothing to do with the 1 year lead of the 360.
Main reasons IMO.
-Too many exclusive games have been lost or gone multi.
-The only exclusive that PS3 have that is actually one hell of a game is metal gear solid, correct me if i am wrong.
-1st class Exclusives like God of war III, Heavy rain, Gran Turismo etc will be released almost 4years!! after PS3 release.
-1080p games are much less than we expected to be.
-That is uncrackable. IMO thats a 1mill consoles less at least per year.
-backwards compatibility that has been removed instead of killing PS2 and have PS2 content available at PSStore.
-Last but not less the price, that even tho for the specs may be right
they could easily have 2 versions.
Uncharted, infamous, LBP are some incredible hell-of-a-game exclusives. Uncharted 2 will be right up there with MGS, as the devs have had a couple of years to make major improvements. 720p games look incredible and there is really no need for 1080p versions in the majority of cases. What is needed is more substance. I think the PS3 will be around for a while longer. But they need to keep the exclusives they have. Give me a few great exclusives a year alongside some solid multi-platforms and I'll be happy. The graphics in most of this gen of gaming are sufficient for me at least. I can wait a few more years for more realism. Sony is definitely gaining momentum, and a few more years of polishing the services and bugs would do it good. It would give them a chance to really start seeing a profit. I agree that a PS4 any time soon would defy logic.

The PS3 lagging the 360 has a lot to do with the 1-year lead. There are numerous threads where this has been vigorously hashed out by people more knowledgeable on the subject than I ever care to be.

Nintendo lost me. But obviously there is a console for everyone. They might show up on my radar if they reinvent themselves and develop a console more in line with Sony and MS, but in the direction they are going now, you couldn't give me a chipped Wii.

A few more years of polishing services to get the PS3 right? I was a sony fanboy back in the day, and I had to face it. Right now, they make an overrated and overpriced system. They showed off the PS3 back in 2005 at E3, so I think they have had way more than enough time to get it right. Really, they are looking more like the Dreamcast every day - even though they have the most powerful system, there aren't enough great exclusives. To make matters worse, I can't even count on one hand a game that looks substantially better on the PS3 than the 360. I find myself seeing that games look better on the 360 than the PS3. Look at GTA4 or even Madden 09.

Don't get me wrong, I would totally buy a PS3 when they lower the price and get a slim version, but I would still find myself favoring it for only a couple games, like MGS or God of War.

edited by creaky to change 'code' quotes to 'quote' quotes

Comment by: emugamer (Aug 12, 2009 15:09)

Are you suggesting that my comment was fanboyish? Yes, a few more years and updates, and the PS3 will become more polished, just like the 360 with its dashboard updates. Both system are working to to make improvements. Maybe Home will offer more and will get to the point where it's the model for the future Sony system. Because right now it's a POS.

And what do you mean by "getting it right?" They put out a solid system that didn't blow up. It's been a bugger to program for, but devs are coming around. Did MS get it right by stripping their system down numerous times to offer multiple models at lower prices? Maybe, they did. It's definitely a valid argument that Sony was wrong to offer the console at such an initial high price. That really won't matter anymore if in fact there is a price cut.

360 and PS3 are both powerful systems, each with their flaws. The "overpriced" PS3 argument is old and overused. Depending on what type of gamer you are, you can spend about as much or as little on a 360 as on a PS3. Depending on what each game system has to offer, and what peripherals you find the need to purchase, you can spend a pretty penny on each one. If the only benchmark you have is MGS and GOW type games, then you're really limiting yourself and will probably setting yourself up for severe disappointment in the years to come. No point in arguing about game selection. That's completely objective.

Comment by: inagasake (Aug 12, 2009 15:09)

I don't see how the 360 is outdated in relation to the PS3. The graphics for both consoles are pretty similar. Sometimes the 360 version of a game looks better, sometimes the PS3 version does. And one dual-layer DVD disc is sufficient for the vast majority of 360 games. Aside from Metal Gear Solid 4 and JRPGs (some of which still only use 1 DL DVD), why would you need extra capacity? All that space in MGS4 and jrpgs is used on HD video cutscenes anyway, which could easily be replaced with in-game engine cutscenes that take up a lot less space. There is no pressing need for games to adopt Blu-Ray. Anyone who grew up with multi-disc Playstation 1 games knows that multi-disc games are not a big deal anyway.

I don't want to sound like I'm saying "in my day, four discs was nothing. Phantasmagoria was on seven discs and you couldn't install it to your hard drive!" But really, it doesn't really kill you to disc swap a game a few times. *plays disc 1 for X amount of hours* *swaps in disc 2* *repeat with each additional disc*. Is that so bad?

Comment by: ZippyDSM (Aug 12, 2009 16:18)

The 360 is old and has much less forward potential than the PS3 of coarse as long as MS supports it will do well, well up to the first 3 years of whatever next next gen console pops up.

Comment by: ZippyDSM (Aug 12, 2009 16:27)

Originally posted by KillerBug:
I'm not sure it would count as next gen, but I would expect nintendo to release something sooner once it's customers start wanting bluray. The xbox360 could easily be retrofited, and sold as a "Xbox Ultimate Blu-Ray edition", but this is not in the capabilities of the WiiWii hardware.

The wii could be easily retrofitted as well even give it a proper 720P mode for newer games, upscaleing for older a HDMI out it can easily be done.

Comment by: MReprogle (Aug 12, 2009 16:30)

Originally posted by emugamer:
Are you suggesting that my comment was fanboyish? Yes, a few more years and updates, and the PS3 will become more polished, just like the 360 with its dashboard updates. Both system are working to to make improvements. Maybe Home will offer more and will get to the point where it's the model for the future Sony system. Because right now it's a POS.

And what do you mean by "getting it right?" They put out a solid system that didn't blow up. It's been a bugger to program for, but devs are coming around. Did MS get it right by stripping their system down numerous times to offer multiple models at lower prices? Maybe, they did. It's definitely a valid argument that Sony was wrong to offer the console at such an initial high price. That really won't matter anymore if in fact there is a price cut.

360 and PS3 are both powerful systems, each with their flaws. The "overpriced" PS3 argument is old and overused. Depending on what type of gamer you are, you can spend about as much or as little on a 360 as on a PS3. Depending on what each game system has to offer, and what peripherals you find the need to purchase, you can spend a pretty penny on each one. If the only benchmark you have is MGS and GOW type games, then you're really limiting yourself and will probably setting yourself up for severe disappointment in the years to come. No point in arguing about game selection. That's completely objective.

I'm in no way calling you a fanboy.

I would just hope that after 3 years of being out, the PS3 would be a little better off by now. Almost from day one, the Xbox has had Xbox Live and I can't really say anything bad about it, besides that you have to pay for it. It not like it's 3 years later and people are still disgusted with it.

I'm not really limiting myself with my game selection, but those are the only PS3 exclusive games I would play. Anything else, I'd prefer my 360, which is practically made for the shooter games I like.

Then again, i'd still pick my Gears of War and Halo games over any PS3 exclusive.

Comment by: ZippyDSM (Aug 12, 2009 16:36)

Quote:
Originally posted by emugamer:
Are you suggesting that my comment was fanboyish? Yes, a few more years and updates, and the PS3 will become more polished, just like the 360 with its dashboard updates. Both system are working to to make improvements. Maybe Home will offer more and will get to the point where it's the model for the future Sony system. Because right now it's a POS.

And what do you mean by "getting it right?" They put out a solid system that didn't blow up. It's been a bugger to program for, but devs are coming around. Did MS get it right by stripping their system down numerous times to offer multiple models at lower prices? Maybe, they did. It's definitely a valid argument that Sony was wrong to offer the console at such an initial high price. That really won't matter anymore if in fact there is a price cut.

360 and PS3 are both powerful systems, each with their flaws. The "overpriced" PS3 argument is old and overused. Depending on what type of gamer you are, you can spend about as much or as little on a 360 as on a PS3. Depending on what each game system has to offer, and what peripherals you find the need to purchase, you can spend a pretty penny on each one. If the only benchmark you have is MGS and GOW type games, then you're really limiting yourself and will probably setting yourself up for severe disappointment in the years to come. No point in arguing about game selection. That's completely objective.
I'm in no way calling you a fanboy.

I would just hope that after 3 years of being out, the PS3 would be a little better off by now. Almost from day one, the Xbox has had Xbox Live and I can't really say anything bad about it, besides that you have to pay for it. It not like it's 3 years later and people are still disgusted with it.

I'm not really limiting myself with my game selection, but those are the only PS3 exclusive games I would play. Anything else, I'd prefer my 360, which is practically made for the shooter games I like.

Then again, i'd still pick my Gears of War and Halo games over any PS3 exclusive.

I dunno res 1-2 is more interesting than halo "ep" 3 and gears "I'ma a half a game" of war.....

I am a shooter fan mind you but I find corridor(becuse developing anything deeper costs more than they are willing to spend on high dollar shovleware) shooters bland,repetitive and pointless >>

Comment by: matt87622 (Aug 12, 2009 17:07)

Originally posted by borhan9:
PS4 already has my vote because their has been a rumor that it will have Tivo within it. This is the reason i would go for it over anything else.

Clear and simple.

If sony is even considering putting a Tivo in the ps4 then they didn't learn anything from the ps3's failure.

Comment by: H08 (Aug 12, 2009 17:17)

Quote:
Originally posted by borhan9:
PS4 already has my vote because their has been a rumor that it will have Tivo within it. This is the reason i would go for it over anything else.

Clear and simple.
If sony is even considering putting a Tivo in the ps4 then they didn't learn anything from the ps3's failure.

what are you talking about? im sure it would have to be an optional feature(because you have to pay monthly for tivo), and how would this hurt PS4 sales at all? if anything it would improve sales.

Comment by: ZippyDSM (Aug 12, 2009 17:29)

Quote:
Quote:
Originally posted by borhan9:
PS4 already has my vote because their has been a rumor that it will have Tivo within it. This is the reason i would go for it over anything else.

Clear and simple.
If sony is even considering putting a Tivo in the ps4 then they didn't learn anything from the ps3's failure.
what are you talking about? im sure it would have to be an optional feature(because you have to pay monthly for tivo), and how would this hurt PS4 sales at all? if anything it would improve sales.

you can get a life time subscription for 200 or so bucks, sony could haggle that down to 50$ or less or make a deal with them to do it for free.

Comment by: H08 (Aug 12, 2009 18:19)

i can see how sony might be able to drop costs

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Comment by: 360lifer (Aug 12, 2009 19:20)

Think he needs to hurry up and actually put a game out for the current systems before talking about the future.

And who says there will even be a PS4? Sony is no where near getting a profit from the PS3 nor its software. Software sales for the PS3 are simply horrible no matter if it's first party or third. Shoot, third party usually sell better. Only thing that can save the hardware is a big price cut but that would put Sony in even more red. Sony has failed in every way.

All in all, I could care less about the future as the Xbox 360 has everything I want now. And when ever the next consoles do come out, I'll have a huge back log of games to play.

Speaking of games, can't wait for Borderlands. :D

Comment by: ZippyDSM (Aug 12, 2009 19:34)

Originally posted by 360lifer:
Think he needs to hurry up and actually put a game out for the current systems before talking about the future.

And who says there will even be a PS4? Sony is no where near getting a profit from the PS3 nor its software. Software sales for the PS3 are simply horrible no matter if it's first party or third. Shoot, third party usually sell better. Only thing that can save the hardware is a big price cut but that would put Sony in even more red. Sony has failed in every way.

All in all, I could care less about the future as the Xbox 360 has everything I want now. And when ever the next consoles do come out, I'll have a huge back log of games to play.

Speaking of games, can't wait for Borderlands. :D

Which will be on the PC so I don;t have to worry about a easybreak oven and a crappy control pad :P

Until lobbying is a hanging offense I choose anarchy!
Ah modern gaming its like modern film only the watering down of fiction and characters is replaced with shallow and watered down mechanics, gimmicks and shiny-er "people".
http://zippydsmlee.wordpress.com/

Comment by: 360lifer (Aug 12, 2009 19:43)

Originally posted by ZippyDSM:

Originally posted by 360lifer:
Think he needs to hurry up and actually put a game out for the current systems before talking about the future.

And who says there will even be a PS4? Sony is no where near getting a profit from the PS3 nor its software. Software sales for the PS3 are simply horrible no matter if it's first party or third. Shoot, third party usually sell better. Only thing that can save the hardware is a big price cut but that would put Sony in even more red. Sony has failed in every way.

All in all, I could care less about the future as the Xbox 360 has everything I want now. And when ever the next consoles do come out, I'll have a huge back log of games to play.

Speaking of games, can't wait for Borderlands. :D
Which will be on the PC so I don;t have to worry about a easybreak oven and a crappy control pad :P

The game is designed using the Xbox 360 pad as said by Randy Pitchford. Also evident by every preview video shows tips using the buttons from the 360 pad.

But why the hate? PC users should be very happy about the Xbox 360 as it's about the only reason why they get any games at all these days. If the 360 was as hard to develop for as the PS3, doubt you would see even half of the ports you guys get now. So be nice to the Xbox 360, its the reason why you will be able to play Borderlands.

Comment by: ZippyDSM (Aug 12, 2009 19:56)

Originally posted by 360lifer:

Originally posted by ZippyDSM:

Originally posted by 360lifer:
Think he needs to hurry up and actually put a game out for the current systems before talking about the future.

And who says there will even be a PS4? Sony is no where near getting a profit from the PS3 nor its software. Software sales for the PS3 are simply horrible no matter if it's first party or third. Shoot, third party usually sell better. Only thing that can save the hardware is a big price cut but that would put Sony in even more red. Sony has failed in every way.

All in all, I could care less about the future as the Xbox 360 has everything I want now. And when ever the next consoles do come out, I'll have a huge back log of games to play.

Speaking of games, can't wait for Borderlands. :D
Which will be on the PC so I don;t have to worry about a easybreak oven and a crappy control pad :P
The game is designed using the Xbox 360 pad as said by Randy Pitchford. Also evident by every preview video shows tips using the buttons from the 360 pad.

But why the hate? PC users should be very happy about the Xbox 360 as it's about the only reason why they get any games at all these days. If the 360 was as hard to develop for as the PS3, doubt you would see even half of the ports you guys get now. So be nice to the Xbox 360, its the reason why you will be able to play Borderlands.

Meh just the 360 can use any 360 button configuration and use a mouse and keyboard but the lack of options and control configuration industry wide is just to much. Thats where my butt hurt comes from I don't mind the 360 replacing the PC as a mainstream game platform,ect but I am oh so tired of lack design and implementation.

I just finished Bionic commando and it was fun even if the button setup was basic at least you could reconfigure it some.

Comment by: Xplorer4 (Aug 12, 2009 20:58)

Originally posted by SDF_GR:
Wii is dead but they dont know it yet, especially after summer that both MS and Sony will release major titles, 2010 is the end of it.

Thats a pretty bold statement as last I checked the Wii was out selling the PS3 and Xbox 360 combined. So at this rate Wii sales are still going up, just as PS3 and Xbox 360 sales are, but the PS3 and Xbox 360 would have to double there combined sales just to catch up to the Wii, let alone surpass it.

Comment by: ZippyDSM (Aug 12, 2009 21:10)

Quote:
Originally posted by SDF_GR:
Wii is dead but they dont know it yet, especially after summer that both MS and Sony will release major titles, 2010 is the end of it.

Thats a pretty bold statement as last I checked the Wii was out selling the PS3 and Xbox 360 combined. So at this rate Wii sales are still going up, just as PS3 and Xbox 360 sales are, but the PS3 and Xbox 360 would have to double there combined sales just to catch up to the Wii, let alone surpass it.

Wait..... 31M(360) + 23M(PS3) is 54M is 2M more than the WII 0_o

But ya the WII is doing well give it a 360 like HD upgrade with some extra upscaleing it would be perfect for the next 8 years.

Comment by: DXR88 (Aug 12, 2009 21:25)

Originally posted by ZippyDSM:
Meh just the 360 can use any 360 button configuration and use a mouse and keyboard but the lack of options and control configuration industry wide is just to much. Thats where my butt hurt comes from I don't mind the 360 replacing the PC as a mainstream game platform,ect but I am oh so tired of lack design and implementation.

I just finished Bionic commando and it was fun even if the button setup was basic at least you could reconfigure it some.

Quote:
the Xbox360 controller works on the pc. there are also certain brands of keyboards and mice that will work on the 360. the controller only has 38 possible key combinations the keyboard has over 1000.

edited by creaky to change 'code' quotes to 'quote' quotes

Comment by: ZippyDSM (Aug 12, 2009 21:28)

Quote:
Originally posted by ZippyDSM:
Meh just the 360 can use any 360 button configuration and use a mouse and keyboard but the lack of options and control configuration industry wide is just to much. Thats where my butt hurt comes from I don't mind the 360 replacing the PC as a mainstream game platform,ect but I am oh so tired of lack design and implementation.

I just finished Bionic commando and it was fun even if the button setup was basic at least you could reconfigure it some.
the Xbox360 controller works on the pc. there are also certain brands of keyboards and mice that will work on the 360. the controller only has 38 possible key combinations the keyboard has over 1000.

Which can be magically tailored to the requirements of the player with something called a configuration screen where you can setup your Gdamn controls. And because they refuse to give you more than 3 or 4 cookie cutter options you are damned to play a game however they lay out it and not something that can be altered to be more intuitive to the player.

Comment by: DXR88 (Aug 12, 2009 21:30)

isn't the code command fun it stretches out the page